Lotteries and Prefaces

Authored by: Matthew A. Benton

The Routledge Handbook of Epistemic Contextualism

Print publication date:  March  2017
Online publication date:  March  2017

Print ISBN: 9781138818392
eBook ISBN: 9781315745275
Adobe ISBN: 9781317594697

10.4324/9781315745275.ch13

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Abstract

Consider a fair coin, which is now flipped. Should you believe that it won’t land heads? Presumably not. Consider then a fair die, which is now rolled. Should you believe that it won’t come up 6? Or consider two fair six-sided dice, which are now rolled. Should you believe, what is about 0.97 likely, that they won’t both come up 1? Or consider four such dice, now rolled. Should you believe, what is about 0.999 likely, that they won’t each come up 1?

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