Election forecasting

Authored by: Stephen D. Fisher

The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behaviorand Public Opinion

Print publication date:  September  2017
Online publication date:  September  2017

Print ISBN: 9781138890404
eBook ISBN: 9781315712390
Adobe ISBN:


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Election forecasting is a mug’s game, so I’m often told. Maybe. But it is fun, people will do it and it is important enough to try to do well. Election forecasts, even if they are not much reported directly in the media, do get noticed and influence the tone of media election coverage. They set expectations so strongly that people are shocked if the forecasting consensus is seriously wrong and substantial amounts of money are made or lost on various markets.

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