Applying and Interpreting Model-Based Seasonal Adjustment—The Euro-Area Industrial Production Series

Authored by: Agustín Maravall , Domingo Pérez

Economic Time Series

Print publication date:  March  2012
Online publication date:  March  2012

Print ISBN: 9781439846575
eBook ISBN: 9781439846582
Adobe ISBN:


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The economic crisis of the last 3 years has had an impact on the behavior of economic series, and models and methods used by statisticians and economists have had a difficult time dealing with it. The European Statistical System (ESS) Guidelines for Seasonal Adjustment (Eurostat 2009), aimed at harmonizing and providing guidelines for seasonal adjustment within the ESS, was completed as the crisis unfolded. The Guidelines did not specifically deal with a crisis like the present one, and seasonal adjusters have felt disoriented. In July 2010, a workshop was held at the European Central Bank (ECB) on implementation of the Guidelines and on ways to treat the crisis; 15 central banks and 20 statistical offices were present. One of the sessions centered on seasonal adjustment of the Euro-Area Industrial Production (EIP) series, and this chapter expands on the comment we contributed.

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