Modeling Infectious Disease Distributions: Applications of Point Process Methods

Authored by: Peter J. Diggle

Handbook of Infectious Disease Data Analysis

Print publication date:  November  2019
Online publication date:  November  2019

Print ISBN: 9781138626713
eBook ISBN: 9781315222912
Adobe ISBN:

10.1201/9781315222912-20

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Abstract

This chapter introduces a number of key concepts in infectious disease dynamics including patterns of incidence in space and time, the importance of age-structure and seasonality, the basic reproductive ratio, and compartmental models for the transmission cycle of pathogens. The interplay between nonlinearity, stochasticity, and seasonality can result in a range of dynamical patterns, ranging from stable levels of infection, periodically recurrent epidemics, and sometimes quasi-periodic or even chaotic changes in levels of infection. The chapter further discusses how spatial structure can lead to emergent spatiotemporal patterns. Hands-on examples of analysis of data and models, with datasets and R-code are provided, including wavelet analysis, the chain-binomial, catalytic model for age-prevalence data, and susceptible-infected-recovered flows.

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