Evaluation of Batters and Base Runners

Authored by: Benjamin S. Baumer , Pamela Badian-Pessot

Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports

Print publication date:  December  2016
Online publication date:  February  2017

Print ISBN: 9781498737364
eBook ISBN: 9781315166070
Adobe ISBN:

10.1201/9781315166070-1

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Abstract

Contents

1.1 Basic Tools

3

  1.1.1 Overview

3

  1.1.2 Expected Run Matrix

3

  1.1.3 Notation

3

1.2 Models Based on Seasonal Data

5

  1.2.1 Batting Models

5

    1.2.1.1 The Triple-Slash Models

5

    1.2.1.2 Averaging Changes to the Expected Run Matrix

8

  1.2.2 Baserunning Models

12

    1.2.2.1 Basestealing Runs

12

    1.2.2.2 Weighted Stolen Base Runs

12

  1.2.3 Combined Models

13

    1.2.3.1 Total Average

14

    1.2.3.2 Offensive Performance Average

14

    1.2.3.3 Estimated Runs Produced

14

    1.2.3.4 eXtrapolated Runs

14

  1.2.4 Comparison of Linear Models

16

  1.2.5 Multiplicative Models

16

    1.2.5.1 Runs Created

18

    1.2.5.2 Batter’s Run Average

18

    1.2.5.3 Earnshaw Cook’s Scoring Index

19

  1.2.6 Accuracy of Run Estimators

19

1.3 Models Based on Play-by-Play Data

21

  1.3.1 Markov Chain Models

22

  1.3.2 RE24

24

  1.3.3 Baserunning Models

24

  1.3.4 Nonoutcome-Based Models

25

    1.3.4.1 DIBS

26

    1.3.4.2 HITf/x and Statcast

26

  1.3.5 Simulation-Based Models

26

1.4 Predictive Models

27

  1.4.1 Models That Produce Point Estimates

27

    1.4.1.1 Marcel

27

    1.4.1.2 ZiPS

30

  1.4.2 Models That Produce Interval Estimates

31

    1.4.2.1 Pecota

31

    1.4.2.2 Steamer

31

    1.4.2.3 Bayesian Models

32

1.5 Conclusion

33

  1.5.1 Open Problems

33

References

34

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